The NFL with Substitute Teachers

So, during the NFL off-season, a lockout started.  With last season's NFL lockout and then the NBA lockout and now it looks like a new NHL lockout looming, this one was relatively minor and didn't make headlines much. Then the preseason started.  And the little lockout wasn't really the focus.  Then week 1 started the regular season.  It was a bit hairy, but they pulled through.  They did better than anyone thought they would.  Maybe it will be okay.  Then week 2 got worse.  "It seems like the coaches and players were pushing to see how far they could get away with things.  Now they know and they're keeping it there.  Now week 3 is in the books and all hell is starting to break loose.  For those of you who don't know, the regular NFL refs are locked out.  That means the muscled Ed Hochuli (seen to the right) and company keeping law and order over the rough and tumble gridiron.

Now the previous (regular) refs weren't perfect; no one is.  The picture of Hochuli is actually from an old ESPN story about his apology for blowing a call that cost a game.  It happens.  But Hochuli and company maintained control of the games.  They made calls with decisiveness and quickness that maintained order, a modicum of fairness and, most of all, the pace of the game.  The replacement officials don't do any of that.  There are grievously blown calls (at least they blow them both ways) and not enough discipline during the extra-curricular shoving matches.

Where did they get these refs?  They could have probably just brought up DI (I'm not going to bother with the FCS BCS BS) referees who know the rules.  There are rules changes form college to the pros, but they aren't much to remember if you study.  Pass interference in college is up to the spot of the foul, maximum 15 yards and a first down.  The pros is spot of the foul (no limit) and first down.  So if your QB is an arm with a life support attached, you could probably get a 80 yard penalty.  There are some other rules, like a player can get back up and run if he isn't down by contact (touched while down) in the pros.  Once you're down, you're down, in college.

But these officials aren't from the DI college ranks.  For one the bigger conferences (Big 10, Pac 12, SEC) treat their officials DAMN well.  They wouldn't want to lose the gigs for a temp position at the NFL.  And most of said conferences (and the other biggies) told their officials if they left, they wouldn't have jobs to come back to.  So these officials are borrowed from the Arena league (lots of different rules and nowhere near as much pressure...if you're asking "What's Arena League"...exactly) or as far down as DIII.  When the Sports Wife asked what is DIII, the Sports Bro-In-Law explained that that's where you find Bob's Really Good College and the like.  These guys aren't ready for this kind of pressure on this stage.  They are substitute teachers and the NFL players and coaches know it.  The NFL is making money hand over fist off of fines for complaining about the refs.  It doesn't matter that the players and coaches are absolutely correct in their complaints.  They're still getting fined.  Take a minute and open another tab in your browser.  In the google bar type "replacement officials complaints."  Look at some of the links/headlines that pop up.  Fox and Del Rio from Denver have already been fined.  Belichick, Shanahan, Harbaugh, and probably some of the Green Bay Packers after tonight, will all be fined this week.

The NFL has been preaching an awful lot lately about caring about player safety. (With a class-action lawsuit from 3000 former players, I'd be preaching, too).  But hits that go uncalled, penalties unenforced, and arguments that should be diverted aren't being controlled by these officials.  Frustration boils over and leads to more vicious hits and more fights. If the NFL truly cared about player safety, they'd settle the issue with the original refs and get the game back to the way it should be.  We're three weeks into the regular season and now it is starting to affect the outcome of games.  Now that it is doing this, it will probably start getting the owners' attention.  It shouldn't have to come to that.  Roger Goodell should have settled this issue earlier.  The replacement officials are starting to lower the quality of your product.  The question is will it hurt the demand for it?  Or will we continue to complain into our beers and blogospheres while we watch?

What to do (or not to do) with King Felix

In a recent Sports Illustrated blurb, Joe Sheenan looked at the case for Felix Hernandez.  ("The Case for Felix Hernandez, Aug 27, 2012).  The piece ran just 12 days after King Felix finally achieved the elusive Perfect Game.  Sheenan makes the case that Seattle should trade its long time ace for various reasons.  1). He deserves to be on a winning team after playing for the perennial cellar-dwelling Mariners.  2). He is at his peak and they can get some offensive players for him right now.  Sheenan points out recent transactions such as the trade that gave the Texas Rangers their contender team when they traded Mark Teixeira.  Sheenan also cites the Mariners' anemic offense as the center of their woes.

The difficulty in responding to this is to try to separate the fan part of my mind from the analytic part.  I am tempted to rattle off an angry e-mail to SI because Sheenan has the audacity to suggest Seattle trade its heart and soul (undisputed heart and soul after the Ichiro trade)?  I'm I being a "homer?" I can see the point that Sheenan makes.  Hernandez would fetch quite a prize right now given that yesterday was his first loss since JUNE.  The Yankees would probably trade handsomely for Hernandez just so they wouldn't have to face him (Felix is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.35 against the Yankees this season and is holding the vaunted Yankee lineup to a piddling .213 average with 17 strikeouts).  What's more, he has ERA's of 0.00 and 0.53 against the hated Red Sox and Rays, respectively.  The problem is with the Yankees riddled with injuries and still trying to make a post-season run, they don't have any established players to trade.  The Mariners could probably get their entire farm system, though.

Of course, there are other teams to trade with.  Boston just jettisoned stars with more money tied up in contracts than the GDP of some nations. But should they trade King Felix at all?

Seattle does have a desperate need of offense.  They haven't had a feared offense since the 116-game winning season (which, by the way, was a team that didn't have certain players named Griffey, Rodriguez, or Johnson).  It is true that last season, the Mariners had a horrendous streak of offensive ineptitude when they lost 14 games in a row.  Many of those games were great pitching battles with scores like 1-0 or 2-0.  Seattle couldn't get any runs.  They couldn't string together hits.

But last season is not this season.  The Mariners may still be heading toward another sub-.500 finish (or maybe they aren't--this late in the season, they're only 5 games under .500 and, technically, have a chance to make the playoffs, it's one-tenth of one percent).  But this season, they aren't stringing together double-digit losing streaks.  This season, they are winning games 1-0 and 2-1 (today's score against the Angels? 2-1 Mariners).  They're starting to get more hitters.  While this year's team doesn't have the batting averages found with the 2001 116-wins team, they are showing improvement.  And they're young.  That is the kicker. Jesus Montero is in his first full season.  John Jaso is in his third full season and is has a higher batting average than he's had before.  There are four regular position players over 30 on the team.  The oldest of the position players is 34 (a tie between sometimes-starters Chone Figgins and Miguel Olivo).  At 26, Felix is older than every one of the regular outfielders.  This isn't a bad team, it is an inexperienced team.  With experience comes higher batting averages.  With experience comes offense.

The Mariners have a front end pitching staff that has been fearsome this season.  Felix is at 13 wins and is carrying an ERA 60 points lower than his career 2.51 vs 3.15.  Their #2 starter, Jason Vargas also has 13 wins and 116 strikeouts.  Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas give the Mariners a core to start building around, a task already underway.  The team is improving.  Their division got a lot harder this season with Los Angeles re-tooling to take a shot at powerhouse Texas (which also added new talent).  Add them to a surging Oakland team and the AL West no longer looks like the league's forgotten division.  And Seattle is starting to compete.  Seattle is already within two wins of last season's total with a month yet to go.  Seattle has used this season to add new talent as well.  It is another season of rebuilding, but with the pitching and the flashes of potential, the Mariners show signs of life.

Sheenan points to offense being the key to filling seats.  And the fact that the Mariners are 26th in attendance seems to support that.  But trading Felix isn't going to help that statistic, but make it worse.  Seattle has a good farm system and is growing some great up and coming pitchers.  Felix is still signed for two more years, giving them time to bring the new pitchers up to shore up the later rotations.  With Trayvon Robinson and Eric Thames adding life, speed, and hitting to the outfield (and both in their first two seasons), the Mariners are working on that weak offense.  With the additions of Montero from the Yankees, Jaso from the Rays adding to their DH and catching corps, the team is coming along.

Trading Hernandez wouldn't just alienate the Seattle faithful, it would be restarting the progress they've already made.  Seattle is one of the best defensive teams in the majors.  With a young team, the expectation would be to have more errors in the field.  Seattle has the fewest, 8 fewer than the next team, the White Sox.    The Mariners also lead the league in fielding percentage.  They are tied with Baltimore for second in putouts. With the offense improving, it is the last piece a puzzle that will take the AL by surprise next season, much the same way Baltimore has this year.

And it will all revolve around keeping the Ace.  Seattle needs Felix.