Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Thoughts on: NFL Preview--Seattle Seahawks @ My Kansas City Chiefs (Yes, they're mine now).

I'll fully admit that the Kansas City Chiefs are doing better than I thought they would this year.  They've already matched the win total I had predicted for them and they haven't played Oakland at all yet.  That being said, they face a very difficult opponent this next week in the Seattle Seahawks.  Luckily, they face them at Arrowhead. The Arrowhead from 90-2000 was one of the most dreaded venues for away teams.  1994 was the only season KC didn't have a winning home record (4-4).  They had 3 three-loss seasons, 2 two-loss seasons, 3 one-loss seasons, and two undefeated seasons at home during that span.  Arrowhead enjoyed sellouts for every game from 1989 until 2009.  Last season, Arrowhead vied with CenturyLink for the Guinness World Record for loudest outdoor stadium.  CenturyLink claimed it, Arrowhead took it the next week, CenturyLink reclaimed it the following week.  It has since been reclaimed by Arrowhead this season in the home game against the New England Patriots.

So, there's some back story.  Now on with the prediction.  (Well, almost).

This past week's Marshawn Lynch-a-thon of the New York Giants actually does the Chiefs a favor.  Why? Glad you asked.  Darrell Bevell. Bevell is the Offensive Coordinator for the Seahawks.  He is reviled by the Sports-Bro-In-Law the Sports Wife, and the Sports-Cousin-In-Law (okay, these titles are starting to get ridiculous).  The Seahawks, interestingly enough for being a defending champion, have some of the same issues as the Chiefs.  Their offense is run through the running back (Lynch for  Seattle, Jamaal Charles for KC); they both have mobile moderate pro bowl quarterbacks; they both have a dearth of real big name receivers; and they have two of the better defenses in the NFL.

One of the key differences, and an advantage to the Chiefs, is Andy Reid (head coach/offensive play-caller; The Fat Man) vs. the aforementioned Bevell.  In Seattle's three losses (two teams of which have lost to the Chiefs later on--San Diego and the St. Louis Rams) Bevell has decided to get cute with the offense and see if he could win without Marshawn Lynch.  He can't.  In the San Diego loss, Lynch had 6 rushes.  The Cowboys game, 10 rushes.  St. Louis game, better, 18 rushes, but only 53 yards.  He was averaging 6 yards per carry, but wound up with 36 yards in the SD game.  Why? Darell Bevell.

Reid, yon the other hand, knows that his offense lives and dies on the legs of Jamaal Charles.  In yesterday's win at Buffalo, for example, the Bills were keeping Charles bottled up.  He had barely any yards in the first half and not from lack of trying.  Reid kept pounding.  Then he pounded with Knile Davis (who looks to be a GREAT second option as Charles ages and gets banged up). That constant pounding set up play actions, screens, and eventually receiver Dwayne Bowe started heating up.  Buffalo started paying attention to Bowe.  BAM Charles reels off a 39 yard TD (on 4th and 1, a rushing down).  Reid does get cute, but he does so in a fashion that sticks with bread-and-butter, Charles-and-Davis.

Bevell will rush the hell out of Lynch one game, then completely neglect using him the next.  In their week 1 dominance of Green Bay, Lynch rushed 110 yards and 2 TDs.  Next week? SD debacle. 6 carries, 36 yards, no TDs.  Percy freakin Harvin was the lead rusher for the 'Hawks with 45 yards.  More on that later.  Week 3 against a retooled Denver defense, Lynch had 88 yards rushing and a TD, 40 yards receiving, and another TD.  Seattle squeaked out a victory to hand Denver its first loss. They didn't overuse or underuse Lynch.  Next week, similar usage against a worse team, Washington.  17 rushes, 72 yards, 5 receptions, 45 yards and a TD.  The offense ran through Lynch, Wilson had less than 200 yards passing to receivers other than Lynch.  Then comes the Dallas game.  10 rushes.  That's it.  And it wasn't like they were getting blown out and had to pass.  In the few games they've been behind to a point of not rushing, they've still thrown to Marshawn out of the backfield.  The Dallas game? 1 reception, 1 yard.  Underutilized.  Then comes the Harvin trade (more in a minute), the rumors that Wilson isn't "black enough," that Lynch will be let go at season's end (wonder what next year's Seahawks will look like if they lose Lynch and don't retool their receiving corps).  Then St. Louis beats them.  Lynch has 18 rushes, more than in the Washington game against an arguably equal to Washington opponent (let's just say they're in rebuilding years), but where Lynch was part of the passing game against Washington, he only caught two balls for 18 yards, still not enough involvement in the offensive game plan.

Let's jump over to Kansas City.  Reid is famous for getting results out of his players and building a system to highlight their strengths rather than cram players into his system.  He went out and got Alex Smith because Reid wanted to run a West Coast offense and Smith is a West Coast Offense QB.  But the offense still runs through Charles.  In the Chiefs 3 losses, against Tennessee (which was a really surprising loss to a pretty bad team), at Denver and at San Francisco (two good teams where the Chiefs actually had a chance to win in each game), a variety of factors came into play.  Charles was injured early against Tennessee.  There goes the offensive game plan.  Knile Davis, like I said earlier, is a good option for Charles, but that early in the season, it was difficult to plan for a different style of runner.  There were also injuries to starting ILB Derrick Johnson and starting DE Mike DeVito, so the defensive game plan suddenly shifted, too.

Playing at Denver against Peyton Manning, who, fun fact, has never lost to the Chiefs (dammit, retire already!), the Chiefs were on the goal line and missed a touchdown pass that would have tied the game and forced overtime.  They can compete.  They were also driving against San Francisco, but Smith hurried a throw and threw a game ending pick.  Other factors, such as a 12 men on the field giving SF a first down, extending their last drive of the game (one that ended in a TD rather than a loooong FG attempt) was probably the killer more than Smith's pick.

The point is, Reid know what kind of personnel he has and what their strengths and weaknesses are.  The Chiefs are 6-3 despite not having any WR receiving TDs (all TD receptions have been tight ends, the running backs, and 1 to fullback Anthony Sherman).  They've still been winning.  Their defense STILL hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown (we're going into week 11!)  However, if you have Chiefs WRs on your fantasy team, I feel bad for you, son.  They got 99 receptions but a TD ain't one.  But that is working, in a way.  The receiving game becomes a threat when it needs to.  Against Buffalo, as mentioned before, Bowe rattled off reception after reception, including one that probably would have been a TD if he hadn't fumbled and recovered it himself, while the Bills bottled up Charles and Davis.  Once Buffalo started clamping down on Bowe, Kelce, and the other receiving threats, Reid came back with the running game.

Bevell doesn't do that.  He tries to cram players into his system rather than adapt a system to the personnel.  Remember Harvin?  Faster than hell and a great deep threat (see how the Jets have used him in the last two weeks?)?  The only times he ran deep routes, the receptions were called back (including 3 touchdowns on the same drive!) due to offensive penalties on the line.  Most of the rest of the time, he was either used for jet sweeps or short crossing routes.  If you have someone who can blow by the covering corner and sometimes the safety, SEND THAT GUY DEEP!  Marty Mornhinweg figured this out.  Harvin has 174 of his 307 receiving yards with the Jets, and he's only been there 3 weeks!  Doing the math, he had 133 yards in his 5 weeks with Seattle.  The Jets are still using him to run, which has been a strength of his going back to his Minnesota days.  69 of his 161 rushing yards are for the Jets vs. 92 through 5 weeks with Seattle.  Does he have a better quarterback in Michael Vick? I would say no.  He has a better system for his talents.

And that is Bevell in a nutshell.  I'm going to do this script this week.  Whoa! Marshawn is averaging 6.1 yards per carry (Dallas game)?!?! Pass the ball, and not to Lynch (1 reception).  Marshawn is pounding the hell out of San Diego?? Run with Harvin and pass.  What do you mean it isn't working??  Welp, let's keep to the script.  Yeah, I know it's third and goal from the 2.  We're still going empty backfield 5 wide!  Don't get me wrong, he does this in wins, too.  But his game plans in those games are run heavy, which almost always works with Lynch.  Other times, when he's tried to get cute and NOT run with Lynch, were against Washington and a struggling Carolina--teams that probably couldn't have stopped the Seahawks anyway.  And Carolina still came close.

That's why I'm encouraged this week.  Last season, Seattle was vastly superior to Kansas City, even though they never played.  I watched every Seattle game (with the Sports Wife and Sports-Bro-In-Law) and every Chiefs game (because they're mine).  Kansas City had their dominant defense for the first half the year (against weak opponents) until teams figured out their blitz packages (after the Denver game) but the offense REALLY struggled, surprisingly until the one playoff game where the defense collapsed (concussions all around, but most devastatingly to Brandon Flowers), the offense came alive and rattled off 44 points without Jamaal Charles.  Indianapolis had prepared for Charles.  They didn't seem to have any idea about Kniles Davis.

Seattle, on the other hand, was dominant throughout the season culminating in their shellacking of Denver in the Super Bowl.  This season, they've been exposed.  Poor offensive line play, losses to the defense (DT Brandon Mebane just tore his hamstring and will miss the rest of the season) have made the Legion of Boom lack a little of the Boom.  And then the Jekyll and Hyde offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell.  Which script will show up in Arrowhead?  Well, they utilized the hell out of Lynch against New York last week, which means it's about time for Bevell to get cute.  Even Vegas has this as a pick 'em.

Seattle 15 Kansas City 17 in a nail-biter.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Minor League Football and the NCAA

In last week's Sports Illustrated, there is a column voicing the opinion that we should take the "student" out of the "student-athlete."  The case is made that the athletes, looking at the money-makers, men's basketball and college football, should really just be university workers since they bring in money for the university.  This might actually be a good idea, but how do you keep universities from basically being professional sports organizations  and going out and, instead of recruiting, offering more money than the next university?

There has also been a proposal of making a minor league system for the NFL, similar to that of the farm system of MLB.  One such article is not even 24 hours old at the time of this writing.  You can find it here.  If we merge these two ideas, the minor league system helps answer the money/signing question for university, like the one voiced in the previous paragraph.

Universities can sign with NFL organizations to become different tiers of their organization.  Your SEC teams and other powerhouses would be the equivalent of AAA teams in MLB.  Smaller schools can be AA and A teams.  There can also be other developmental leagues (D-Leagues) composed of some of the smaller schools.  The game of college football would still be a money maker for colleges with support coming (financially and otherwise) from the NFL.  The NFL could sign contracts with universities that included stipends/salaries for football personnel including players.  The NFL could then also be active in discipline of these personnel as well and have more bearing and power than the NCAA does since there have been athletes and coaches who have left the NCAA ahead of investigations and been rewarded with professional contracts.  Having the NFL levy fines and punishments closes the loophole that allows this form of escape.

The NFL could draft athletes out of high school and then send them to different colleges to develop as players.  They wouldn't take classes unless they wanted to work toward a degree.  They would be University and NFL employees.  They would play for the university, but their payments would come from the NFL, taking the burden of policing money policies off of the NCAA and individual universities.  This could also free up money for universities to actually use their budgets on education.

Players could then move up or down, similar to the MLB system.  Players who are nursing injuries or recovering from surgery could play at the university associated with their NFL team as part of a rehab to make sure they don't try to come back too soon.  Players not performing (or who have repeated discipline problems) can be demoted from AAA to AA or A or released.  The minor league players would no longer be college players and would therefore be subject to the aforementioned penalties, but also trades, upward and downward movement, release, etc.  The universities would simply supply the location.  Universities and the NFL teams could also sign with different teams or universities when contracts are completed.

An example:  USC becomes a AAA team for the San Diego Chargers of the NFL.  The University of San Diego becomes the Chargers' AA team, and Occidental becomes one of the A teams.  The Chargers draft players (the NFL draft would be greatly expanded and would target amateur and high school players).  These players then go into the minor league system (after graduation in the cases of high school players) at varying levels.  Players would play at the universities.  In a way, they would still play for the university.  These universities would also serve as development and practice for players already in the NFL.  Charger players who are not performing to the standards of that team, or who are injured, can be designated to USC, San Diego, or Occidental to practice, re-develop, or rehabilitate.  Once they have demonstrated the required improvement, they can then be brought up to the next level (Occidental to San Diego; San Diego to USC; USC to the Chargers).  This would also allow greater freedom for trades.  The Chargers could make a multi-player trade, receiving, for example, 4 players in exchange for 3.  Normally, this may put the Chargers over the roster limit.  Under the new proposed system, rather than releasing a player, the Chargers could designate a lower depth chart player for assignment in, but be able to hold them within the organization to be brought up in case of release, retirement, injury, or suspension of another player.

This system would replace the NCAA's oversight of college football.  A similar system between the NBA and men's basketball and the WNBA would replace the NCAA in college basketball as well.  It would NOT do away with bowl games or March Madness.  Colleges would still participate in the different bowl games.  One concern may be professional teams sending players down to the college ranks in order to win the bowl games for the organization.  Rules to keep from tampering would be put in place.  During Bowl Season, the NFL teams are making a push for their own playoffs.  Teams are not going to send star players down to the college ranks for a bowl game and risk injury, not to mention missing valuable professional practice time, for a college bowl.  For teams that are not fighting for playoffs, who could send players down, putting in deadlines for non-injury movement upward and downward before and after bowl season.  Colleges would still provide the entertainment of the holiday bowl season and have the opportunity to make money for the university in the case of bowl invites, wins, and championships.

In the end, making colleges the minor league farm system for the NFL would cut down on NCAA violations (because players could then be paid).  It would also take athletes out of the classrooms, making class sizes smaller, and in the case of some universities, eliminate frivolous class offerings engineered to give athletes easier classes, such as those mentioned in the Sports Illustrated article.  It would actually allow more players/talent into the NFL system, allowing other athletes, who may otherwise never receive a chance to play, into a professional system, even at the minor league level.  This also has a billion dollar industry take over monetary responsibilities from cash-strapped universities.  This would also have to include legislation to allow universities to use any money received from donors as they see fit, instead of boosters dictating their money go to football programs that really don't need it.  This would also allow the parent organization (the NFL) to police their employees, removing the burden of high-profile punishments, often for stupidly minor and meaningless infractions (such as an athlete using their own given property as barter for services, such as tattoos, rendered) from the domain of the NCAA, eliminating the stupid rules preventing athletes from using their own likenesses.  This also deals a with the NCAA hypocrisy of earning money on student athletes when they, themselves, cannot, not to mention the upcoming litigation of NCAA athlete unionization.

Two problems do present themselves within this system.  Taking the student out of the student athlete may mean that these individuals may never get an education, instead choosing to focus on the sport (which, I would maintain, most of them are doing anyway).  This system could be accused of treating the athletes like a commodity within a large machine, dehumanizing them to worker bees and money makers for the parent organization.  The other problem would be the decreased meaning of college bowl games, making them minor league showcases rather than the championship spectacles they are now.

First off, the student athlete is already a dehumanized worker bee money maker for the NCAA, but one of the goals for this proposal is to improve the conditions, not simply sell the same system to the NFL.  As minor league players, the college players would then be union represented by the NFLPA (no small organization in itself) and, as such, negotiated and bargained for under collective bargaining agreements.  To be sure, the amount of support needed for health care (current and long term) would eat into the NFL's gigantic profit margin.  However, the NFL is America's most profitable non-profit organization (yup, it is tax exempt).  I think they can spare the money.  With representation for the college players, they could then be paid a living wage (probably beyond a living wage), with health care and representation.  They would no longer be the yearly contract unpaid employees they are now.  Most, if not all, NCAA scholarship agreements are yearly. That means if a player is cut, or worse devastatingly injured, the NCAA is responsible until that player's scholarship runs out at the end of the year (or, in some cases, season).  There have been some high profile cases (a series of Sports Illustrated articles on Oklahoma State's using and discarding players) that show schools doing exactly that.  The players not only don't get the education, they often return home in worse condition than when they left.

To counter this, the NFL would include something like a G.I. bill for current and former minor league players.  If they want to take classes while working for the universities at which they play, they could do so at classified staff rates (at most universities, this comes out to less than $100 per credit).  If they do not wish to take classes at the time of their employment at the minor league level, they would then be given a voucher (unexpiring) for four years of full-time education at any of the institutions at which they played.  The universities get to negotiate for large contracts with the professional teams, they players get their education without the threat of losing their scholarships.  Under this system, they would still be a commodity, but they would be more reimbursed than they are now.

As for the bowl games, yes, they probably will suffer.  The colleges and universities participating in the bowls would basically be holding a championship for the best farm team.  There really is no equivalent for MLB, even the College World Series tournament A) isn't as big a draw, B) doesn't represent all of the talent of individual teams because players either aren't associated with a team yet or are playing on teams from multiple organizations, or, if they are MLB bound, didn't go to college and went directly into the established minor league system.  I would claim that the NCAA bowls may actually get better.  Instead of a handful of the players from the colleges in the 30ish bowl games we have going into the NFL, the level of talent would actually be higher.  The bowl games would essentially be played by the AAA teams, (arguably, they already are).  The difference, is that as an actual AAA team, ALL of these players are one step away from the NFL instead of a handful from each team.  That would mean 53 players this close to the NFL squaring up against 53 players this close to the NFL would be playing for the bowl wins.  This would also shake up the hierarchy of NCAA football.  Instead of an Alabama team loaded with four years of eventual NFL talent at a number of positions, there would be A) more teams with more NFL talent, and B) the possibility of a very high AAA team moving more players to the pros and having more players increasing trade stock, thereby changing teams more often than the four-year starters in today's NCAA.  This would possibly do away with the dynastic control teams (or conferences like the SEC) have over the current bowl system, making it more exciting and less predictable.

By instituting the minor league system, the NFL can contract and pay players who now go unpaid.  The NFL and universities would share profits.  Players would have more security and better opportunities for education without that education being taken away.  Universities could return to focusing on what they were originally meant to focus on--educating, not being a life support for a football team.  The sport could grow in smaller areas by any player, even those on single A, have the possibility of being called up (Jose Canseco and Dennis Eckersley started their MLB careers in Idaho Falls, of all places).  Everyone involved benefits in some way.