Gregg Easterbrook who writes Tuesday Morning Quarterback, one of my regular weekly reads during the football season, here, links SpyGate and Belichick's Super Bowl losses to the Football Gods raging against him. They rage because he has never admitted that it was outright cheating, but only a "misinterpretation of the rules."
There is a correlation between the two. Before SpyGate, Belichick was undefeated in the Super Bowl. But is it Karma and the Football Gods catching up to him that has put the Patriots at home while another team gets a NFL Championship Parade? I would suggest several other factors before crediting the Football Gods.
Disclaimer: I actually do believe in Karma. I invoked the Football Gods during the final rivalry game of U of I and Boise State when BSU was still throwing long bombs despite being up by five touchdowns. They lost to Nevada two weeks later and also lost any hope of playing in a major bowl game. It serves them right. But was it an angry Football God that made their kicker miss two easy ones?
On to Belichick. There are several other reasons why Belichick hasn't won the big one since SpyGate. Think about it, he was nigh unstoppable before they caught his cameraman...could it be because he HAD A CAMERAMAN ON THE OPPOSING SIDELINES?!?! And now he doesn't and he isn't unstoppable.
Belichick is a very good coach. He is intense, knows how to draft (or at least knew), and studies more than just the other team's players, but also coaches' tendencies as well. He plain outfoxed Fox in the first Denver meeting. But he hasn't done a lot of innovation lately. He is the IBM of the NFL (mmm, alphabet soup). He has stopped innovating. He throws different defensive looks at teams, but most teams have realized he doesn't have a dominant secondary anymore. They've realized he's stuck with an aging pass rush, too. New England's defense was among the worst in the NFL. But it's offense could carry it...against poor teams. Of the teams that New England beat in the regular season, only one finished with a winning record. Teams with decent defenses knew that Brady was going to drop back and pass...and pass...and pass. Name a starting running back for the Patriots...
Belichick's former drafting greatness has fallen by the wayside as well. With the notable exception of Rob Gronkowski in the second round in 2010, he hasn't drafted a star or diamond in the rough in years. New England had a raft of first round draft picks and has another two in the upcoming draft. But they haven't been making headlines with their players. Belichick has even been credited with a few busts in recent years.
Another reason for the lack of trophies in Foxborough for the past 7 years could also be that the NFL is a copycat league. The wildcat has come and gone. We are again in a spread offense and running quarterback phase (Cam Newton meet Randall Cunningham). The NFL caught up to Belichick. They figure him out. Drew Brees had more yards passing than Brady did this season, even though both broke Dan Marino's single season record. In a game of Tecmo Bowl (1991 NES video game, for those of you not familiar) pass wacky offenses could work. Some teams didn't need running backs. Run heavy teams could also work. But that was a video game. If a team never rushes, they face a secondary that gets coverage sacks, like a few we saw Sunday. If a team is run heavy, they wind up facing seven or eight men in the box, like New England did to Denver during the regular season and playoffs. It became obvious that Belichick's innovative offense was pass wacky. Coughlin is a good enough coach to see that and plan for it. The Giants have a good enough defense to follow through on those plans.
Yeah, there might be some modicum of karma in sports. But don't assume for a minute that that was the only reason New York was victorious Sunday.
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