Football is almost upon us. I love this time of year. The Washington State University commercials have been bragging about their fans and waving the Cougar flag all over the world. When your football commercials focus on your fans rather than your team, you have problems with your football team. WSU may have great fans and a great tradition with its flag, but right now the football team is not doing well. I have them picked to finish last in their division of the Pac 12.
They have chosen Idaho State as their "warm up" first game of the year. For such a small school, do you know how many NFL players have come out of ISU? Anyone know the name Jared Allen? Drafted by the Chiefs, traded to the Vikings, NFL sack machine including leading the league in 2007 with 15.5. Graduate of Idaho State. Just because ISU is a small school from the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision, formerly Division II) doesn't mean WSU is guaranteed to win. Ask Michigan how that idea to play Appalachian State worked out for them. The Wolverines dropped out of the top 25 so fast there probably should have been a sonic boom. I'll go so far as to predict an Idaho State upset. You can make fun of this idea all you want, but I'll stand by it. ISU will at least put up a fight against the Cougars. I think they'll win.
On to the Pros and the AFC West.
I am a Kansas City fan. I love the Chiefs. But I don't see them defending their division crown. Between the up and coming Raiders, who swept all six division games last year, and the usual division juggernaut Chargers, I don't think the Chiefs will be able to hold up. Last year, they only beat two teams that had records above 500. Every year that the Chiefs have had strong records, they had a weak schedule. Then, when they've gotten into the playoffs, they've been easily put out in the first round, usually playing at Arrowhead. In the 90s, Arrowhead was feared. It is still one of the loudest stadiums. But the team that plays there is not the killer defense of the 90s.
Kansas City did go out and get a great college receiver, Jonathan Baldwin, to compliment Dwayne Bowe. One of the first things Baldwin does is get in a fight with veteran running back, Thomas Jones, and injures his wrist, missing the rest of the preseason. While it really doesn't mean a whole lot as far as the regular season, preseason games are incredibly valuable in-game experience for rookies.
Kansas city was 30th (there are only 32 teams in the NFL) in passing last year. They were first in rushing, thanks to Charles and Jones. The problem with being one dimensional is that good teams will figure out a way to stop the one dimension (see Lions, Detroit, 1990s). Baltimore did it against the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs and put the Chiefs out. The Chiefs are sitting on about $33 million in unused cap space. This is money they're sitting on. They don't get to save it and use it next season for $33 million more to spend on players. After this season, it's gone. They still have a good offensive line, even with recent retirements. The bottom line remains that they need to do more with the passing game. Cassel is going to have to continue to develop and become a top tier quarterback. Otherwise the Chiefs will be the same Chiefs we saw in the mid 2000s, a running game with a afterthought aerial attack. If they get to the playoffs with the current offensive scheme, they'll get put out in the first round, just like every other playoff game since Joe Montana guided them to the AFC Championship against Buffalo in 1993.
Prediction time: The division is starting to get some teeth after being Chargers and the other guys for so many years. I'm going to go out on a limb and pick the Raiders to take the division, though. It'll be Raiders, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, in that order. The Broncos will be the only team with a losing record.
Raiders: These guys will go 10-6. They had the everyone else's number in the division last year, going 6-0. Their only trouble was that they went 2-8 against the rest of their opponents. This year the AFC West plays the NFC North quite heavily. That means the defending champs, Green Bay, and the playoff team, Chicago will be tough match ups for everyone in this division. Throw in contests with the AFC East (especially the Jets and the always strong Patriots), this will be a tough season again.
Chargers: They'll go 9-7. They aren't the dominant force they once were. Last year saw them lose to divisional foes surprisingly often. They're still a good team, but they need healthy running backs. They led the league in offense and defense last year, but still lost games. Their special teams could have been cut into a montage with "Benny Hill" playing in the background (in fact, I'm relatively sure this can be found on Youtube somewhere). But special teams alone won't produce a season like San Diego had last year. They'll bounce back.
Chiefs: Oh, my beloved Kansas City, you'll go 8-8. Oakland's improvement and San Diego's recovery will cost you games from last year. Having the schedule of ultimate suckiness will mean you'll have a dry spell in the early second half of the season. (New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, the Jets, Green Bay, and Oakland weeks 11-16). If that isn't the toughest six week run of any team in the NFL, then I have no business writing a sports blog. Their lone consolation is that they follow that with a week 17 visit to Denver. Although I'm not sure how much fun playing in Denver on New Year's Day really is. Yeah, the Chiefs will do well in the opening part of the season. I think they'll go undefeated until they hit Indy (and even that depends on how well Peyton recovers from surgery) in week 5.
Broncos: Oh, Denver. Poor, poor Denver. Denver actually has the toughest division schedule out of the AFC West. Mainly because everyone else gets to play the Broncos twice. Seriously, the schedule rankings have a 10 percentage point spread between the above teams and the Broncos. Poor Denver is going to go 3-13 this season. They haven't figured out what the heck they're doing at QB. They haven't really replaced Brandon Marshall. The last time they had a decent running back, it was because Shanahan's offensive line and blocking scheme could get your grandmother a 1000 yard rushing season. That line is gone. Shanahan is gone. The running game...is gone.
There's predictions part two in the books. Make fun of me at the end of the season for actually predicting that the Raiders are the AFC West team to beat. If reactions from part one predictions are any indication, some of you won't wait until season's end (or even beginning) to start pulling apart these.
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