The Ethics of Sucking for a Shot at a Franchise Player

This is the year of Suck for Luck. It all started last year when Stanford junior QB Andrew Luck, who was in the heart of the Heisman race late in the season, decided to return to school for his senior year.  Now, Andrew Luck has the college play ability and reputation of possibly being the best QB heading to the NFL since Peyton Manning. This guy could be more Manning than Manning (Peyton than Eli).

As soon as Luck decided to go back to Stanford for his senior season, fan bases for bad NFL teams started hoping for L's more than W's. Look what happened to the Colts from 97 to 98 and then into the Manning Era. In 1997, the Indianapolis Cots finished with a 3-13 record, the worst in the NFL. This ensured them the first pick in the draft. Two college QB's were vying for the honor at the time, Manning, and Ryan Leaf. Looking back, now the Manning/Leaf debate seems as stupid as Coca-Cola Classic/New Coke. The Colts took Manning. Their next season, 1998, they also finished 3-13. However, with another first pick in the draft, the Colts took RB Edgerrin James. Now that the young QB, Manning, had an offense that wasn't one dimensional, the Colts took off. They finished the 1999 season 13-3 with a first round bye in the playoffs. They didn't look back, making the playoffs every year until now, where they sit 0-7. For those of you living under rocks (at least in the sports world), Manning had two off-season surgeries and has not played. It doesn't look like he will play this season, possibly in his career, depending on the rate of recovery from the surgeries.

Manning has been thought of as one of the best quarterbacks ever to play in the NFL. His intelligence and ability to read opposing defenses has led Indy to more complex offenses, the ability to adapt to different teams, and to be at least evenly matched against any other team in the league. They are the only team to really give the Bill Belichick Era Patriots fits. It looked like Indy would set a record this season for most consecutive playoff appearances before Manning had to bow out. All of this because they sucked in the late 90s and were able to get a franchise quarterback with the first pick.

Now it's happening again. Luck is the quarterback this time around who can be the next Manning. There are three teams who have yet to win this year. Indy is among them. The other two are Miami and St. Louis. St. Louis used a high draft pick two years ago for Sam Bradford, another good college QB. The problem has been, like Manning's first year, Bradford has no other options. His offensive line is atrocious and his running back is way past his prime. Bradford has been hit so often he sat out this past Sunday's game with a high ankle sprain. If your young quarterback gets pounded, he's not going to become an old quarterback.

Getting back to the Luck Question: should we as fans hope for our teams to tank for one year for the chance at future greatness? Part of me says yes. I would love to see Andrew Luck call plays for the Chiefs, who were early season contenders in the Suck for Luck contest. They have since won three in a row. I swear, every time I think that Matt Cassel should be traded, benched, or run out of town on a rail, he has a great game, or series of games, and pulls the Chiefs out of suckitude. Would I take Andrew Luck even though Cassel shows signs of greatness? Yes. Would I want my team to tank this year for the chance to be the next 2000s Colts? That's harder to answer. Like I said earlier, part of me says yes. But I also want my team to do their very best every year.

As a general manager, coach, or even owner, this question is easier to answer. No. You never tell your team to tank in order to get a star player next year. Look at the NBA right now. There might not be a "next year."

Let's look at some of the past teams who have had a franchise player land in their laps via suckage, intentional or not.

First up, Cleveland and the LeBron James Contest.  Cleveland absolutely sucked in the early 2000s. They finished the 02-03 season with a record of 17 wins and 65 losses. They finished tied with the Denver Nuggets for the worst record in the league.

Where the NFL goes by straight team standings for their draft selection, the NBA goes with a lottery system. The teams that don't make the playoffs are entered in a lottery. The NBA draws ping-pong balls with team logos out of a lottery machine to determine draft order. The worse the record, the greater the number of ping-pong balls the team has in the machine.

With their matching suckitude records, the Nuggets and the Cavaliers had equal chances to land James. Cleveland won the opportunity and snatched the high school player with the first pick. It didn't work out too well for them. Yes, Cleveland started selling out home games. They started making the playoffs (eventually). They made it to the NBA finals (but lost). Then the inevitable happened. James left. Not only did he leave, he kept the city on a yo-yo while he "tried to make up his mind." Read here: milked the publicity. James knew where he was going to go. He had known since he and Chris Bosh had played with Dwayne Wade on the 2008 Olympic team. They had all decided they wanted to play together and see how many rings they could get. Were they all going to play in a mid-market team in a depressed city like Cleveland? Were they all going to travel to the frozen north to Toronto, where Bosh was playing? Or would they travel to South Beach, Miami? A major market team in a comfortable climate in a big city. Hmmm. And everyone wound up playing for the Heat.

A player as savior is not a sure thing, especially in football. Early draft picks have a hard time making the transition from college stud to NFL savior. It took Manning two years to have a winning season. Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, and Matt Leinart have yet to come to fruition. Leinart isn't even a starter, backing up Matt Schaub in Houston.

So, what do you do? Is it ethical to write off a season and try to get someone who will put butts in the seats and lead the franchise to the playoffs for nearly a decade? If you do try to win games and fight and claw your way up to the middle of the pack in the NFL, then what? You don't make the playoffs, and you're in the middle for the draft. Chances are, you don't get a big college savior, and you're doing what you've been doing for the last however many years; drafting to fill the needs you have and just hoping you find a diamond in the rough.

That is unless you're Bill Belichick. The guy is a genius when it comes to finding draft picks that pan out. You know Tom Brady? Superstud at the pro level? Setting records for most games without throwing a pick? Until recently had never thrown an interception in the red zone? That Tom Brady? Yeah, 199th pick in the 2000 draft. Sixth round. There was no risk in taking him at that point. Why not? Getting into those late round picks, you're getting kickers, punters, and a special teamer or two. Well, here's a quarterback who our quarterbacks coach says looks pretty good. Eh, whadaya gonna do? If he doesn't pan out, we cut him with the other late round picks. It took Brady two years to get into the starting role. It took an injury that caused internal bleeding to then starter Drew Bledsoe, but he got there. Three Super Bowl champion rings later, he's still one of the top tier quarterbacks, if not the top QB in the NFL. The Patriots didn't suck the year before in order to draft their quarterback of the future. They didn't need to.

I'll admit it. When Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles went down with a season ending injury in the second week of the season, joining tight end Tony Moeaki on the injured-reserve list, I started thinking "hey, maybe we can lose all of them this year and get Luck." I had that thought. I'm betting Dolphins fans are having that thought. I'm betting Rams fans are having that thought. I'm wondering if Colts fans are having that thought. The Dolphins and Rams have long term woes. Luck, even if he turns into the next coming of Peyton Manning, won't be able to right those ships. But neither was Manning. The Colts, I don't know. If they wind up going oh-fer, do they take Luck, knowing that Manning might be back next year? Do they expect Manning to train his replacement? Will Indy wind up with a Favre-o-rama in a couple of years with a current quarterback hanging on too long while they have the next great one in the wings?

And what if Luck is the next coming of Ryan Leaf? What if the real genius of the Stanford offense was really Jim Harbaugh, now the head coach for the 49ers? There are too many variables. If one of the oh-fer teams right now winds up that way, and joins the 2008 Detroit Lions with the record for suckitude, and drafts Luck, will this season be seen as a blessing in disguise? Or will it be a taste of things to come?